Derby 1-0 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Oxford United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Oxford United travel to Pride Park to take on Derby in Championship (matchday 43). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Derby's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Derby are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Oxford United have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oxford United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.50 PPG, Oxford United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Derby's games and 60% of Oxford United's (from Derby's last 10 home games and Oxford United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Derby, 2 for Oxford United and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Derby 0–1 Oxford United — a Oxford United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Oxford United in-play tendencies (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 54% versus Oxford United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Oxford United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.43 xG and Oxford United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.056 / defence 0.924 | Oxford United attack 0.930 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.164. Data: built from Derby's last 88 games and Oxford United's last 88.
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Oxford United 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.21 | Draw 3.30 | Oxford United 4.07. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derby 60% (last 10 home games) | Oxford United 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Oxford United | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Oxford United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Derby 1.43 / Oxford United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.056 / def 0.924 | Oxford United attack 0.930 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Oxford United xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Oxford United FAQs
What time does Derby vs Oxford United kick off?
Derby vs Oxford United kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Derby 1 - 0 Oxford United.
Where is Derby vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Oxford United part of?
Derby vs Oxford United is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Oxford United a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derby and Oxford United will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Derby vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.06x the league average against Oxford United's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oxford United's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 88 games and Oxford United's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.30
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Derby xG
Total xG
2.43
1.00
Oxford United xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Derby and 1.00 for Oxford United, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 88 outings, Derby have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 31W 20D 37L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Oxford United's form line: 23W 28D 37L from 88 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.28 PPG, Oxford United on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 44 home games (18W 11D 15L).
On the road, Oxford United have gone 6W 15D 23L from their last 44 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Oxford United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 31W 20D 37L in their last 88 games (1.28 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 23W 28D 37L in their last 88 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Oxford United away?
Derby's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.48 PPG; Oxford United away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Oxford United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
2
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Oxford United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Oxford United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 4, Oxford United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Oxford United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Derby 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Oxford United?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Oxford United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Derby) and 46% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Oxford United in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Oxford United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 57% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Oxford United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Derby's recent games and 46% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Oxford United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Derby's recent matches and 68% of Oxford United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Oxford United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Oxford United 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.43 xG and Oxford United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oxford United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Oxford United attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Oxford United 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Oxford United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Oxford United's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.28 PPG, Oxford United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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