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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Norwich 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Norwich 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.10 xG and Norwich 1.33 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Norwich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Norwich attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 31% | Draw 28% | Norwich 42%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 38%, Norwich 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Norwich's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.04 PPG, Norwich 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights