🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.15 xG and Middlesbrough 1.39 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Middlesbrough attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 31% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 42%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Middlesbrough 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.17 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights