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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Thu 1 Jan 2026

15:00

Venue

Pride Park

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Middlesbrough Win

31%

Derby

3.27

28%

Draw

3.58

42%

Middlesbrough

2.41

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

1 – 0

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.15

Derby xG

Total xG

2.54

1.39

Middlesbrough xG

31%
28%
42%
DerbyDrawMiddlesbrough

3.27

31%

Home win

3.58

28%

Draw

2.41

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

25%

Derby

4.00

32%

Middlesbrough

3.17

Win to Nil

8%

Derby

13.09

13%

Middlesbrough

7.63

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 10.9 7.6 3.5 1.2 0.3
1 9.1 12.6 8.7 4.0 1.4 0.4
2 5.2 7.3 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.2
3 2.0 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.153
λ Away (xG) 1.386
Total xG 2.539
League avg home goals 1.361
League avg away goals 1.151
Derby attack strength 0.857
Derby defence strength 1.143
Middlesbrough attack strength 1.053
Middlesbrough defence strength 0.989
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 70 / 70