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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Derby 1-3 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leicester outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 26% | Leicester 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Leicester 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.20 PPG, Leicester 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights