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Poisson rates Derby at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Leicester encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Leicester travel to Pride Park to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby's home record at Pride Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Leicester's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Leicester in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Data

Derby trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Leicester trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Leicester 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Leicester 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.936 / defence 1.008 | Leicester attack 0.850 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.230. Data: 64 Derby games / 18 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 26% | Leicester 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Leicester 3.85. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Leicester 60% BTTS from recent games.

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