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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Hull City 2-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.12 xG and Hull City 1.24 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 33% | Draw 28% | Hull City 39%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, Hull City 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.14 PPG, Hull City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights