Derby vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby at Pride Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Charlton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charlton are 0.70 PPG clear of Derby in recent Championship fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Derby 3W, Charlton 3W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 63% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Charlton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.36 xG and Charlton 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.785 / defence 1.253 | Charlton attack 0.897 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Derby's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Derby games / 54 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 29% | Charlton 37%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 29% | Charlton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Derby 1.36 / Charlton 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.785 / def 1.253 | Charlton attack 0.897 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Charlton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Charlton xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Charlton kick off?
Derby vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Charlton part of?
Derby vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derby and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
Record (7 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 1 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Derby and Charlton in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.90x) against Derby's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.41
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Derby xG
Total xG
2.77
1.41
Charlton xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Derby and 1.41 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 21W 11D 22L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 21L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Derby against 1.20 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 11D 11L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.94 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Charlton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Charlton away?
Derby's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.37 PPG; Charlton away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Charlton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Charlton 2-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 63%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 41% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Derby's games and 59% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 41% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Charlton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Charlton in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.