Derby vs Charlton Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Derby at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Charlton.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Charlton in Championship (matchday 36). Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Derby have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derby at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Charlton (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Derby against 0.70 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Derby, 3 for Charlton and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2026, ended Derby 1–2 Charlton — a Charlton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 64% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Charlton 43%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.49 xG and Charlton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.776 / defence 1.203 | Charlton attack 0.776 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.294. Derby's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.49. Charlton's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Charlton's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Derby's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Derby's last 61 games and Charlton's last 61.

Result probabilities: Derby 44% | Draw 26% | Charlton 31%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.29 | Draw 3.92 | Charlton 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).

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