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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 8, as Derby and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 40% | Draw 30% | Charlton 30%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights