Derby 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby at Pride Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charlton (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charlton are 0.50 PPG clear of Derby in recent Championship fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Derby have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Charlton in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Derby 2W, Charlton 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Charlton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.950 / defence 1.169 | Charlton attack 0.739 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.160. Data: 53 Derby games / 7 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 30% | Charlton 30%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Charlton 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 30% | Charlton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Derby 1.20 / Charlton 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.950 / def 1.169 | Charlton attack 0.739 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Charlton kick off?
Derby vs Charlton kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Charlton?
Derby 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Derby vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Charlton part of?
Derby vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 40% chance of winning, Charlton a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 0 | Charlton 2W.
What form are Derby and Charlton in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.74x) against Derby's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.30
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Derby xG
Total xG
2.20
1.00
Charlton xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Derby and 1.00 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 14W 14D 25L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 13L across 53 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 9W 6D 11L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Charlton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 14W 14D 25L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 13D 13L in their last 53 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.27 PPG; Charlton away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Derby or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Charlton in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Charlton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Charlton 2-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Derby) and 35% (Charlton) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Derby) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charlton in 42%; Derby have failed to score in 38% of games; Charlton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Derby's recent matches and 35% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Charlton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Charlton in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 8, as Derby and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 40% | Draw 30% | Charlton 30%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.