Derby 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Burnley at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Burnley are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Derby's 20% rate and Burnley's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Burnley 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 45% versus Burnley 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 46% | Burnley 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.860 / defence 0.949 | Burnley attack 1.184 / defence 0.566. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 0.996. Burnley's defence strength of 0.566 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Derby games / 40 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 21% | Draw 32% | Burnley 47%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 2.13. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Derby's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 20% | Burnley 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 21% | Draw 32% | Burnley 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Derby 0.64 / Burnley 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.860 / def 0.949 | Burnley attack 1.184 / def 0.566 | league avg home 1.305 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Burnley (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Burnley xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Burnley kick off?
Derby vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 April 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Burnley?
Derby 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Derby vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Burnley part of?
Derby vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 21% chance of winning, Burnley a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Derby and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Derby and Burnley in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.86) and Burnley's defence rating (0.57), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
21%
4.81
32%
3.13
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Derby xG
Total xG
1.75
1.12
Burnley xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 19.4 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Derby and 1.12 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 35W 15D 28L from 78 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 28W 24D 26L across 78 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.54 PPG, Burnley on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 23W 6D 10L from 39 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 15W 11D 13L across 39 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Burnley in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Burnley in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 15D 28L in their last 78 games (1.54 PPG), while Burnley have gone 28W 24D 26L in their last 78 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Burnley away?
Derby's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.92 PPG; Burnley away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Derby or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burnley in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Derby 0-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 41%, Burnley 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 44% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Burnley in 36%; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Derby's recent matches and 46% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Derby's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Burnley tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Burnley in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Burnley finished level at 0-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Burnley attack 1.18 / defence 0.57, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 21% | Draw 32% | Burnley 47%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 46%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.54 PPG, Burnley 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.