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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby and Bristol City finished level at 1-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.43 xG and Bristol City 1.84 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bristol City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.08 / defence 1.27 against Bristol City attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 47%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Bristol City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.04 PPG, Bristol City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights