Derby vs Bolton – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 15 as Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's home record at Pride Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bolton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Derby) versus 1.50 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Derby, 1 for Bolton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 64% and Bolton 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Bolton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.48 xG and Bolton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.902 / defence 1.186 | Bolton attack 0.832 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Data: 50 Derby games / 4 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 31% | Bolton 30%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Bolton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bolton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 31% | Bolton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Derby 1.48 / Bolton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.902 / def 1.186 | Bolton attack 0.832 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Derby (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bolton xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Bolton part of?
Derby vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 39% chance of winning, Bolton a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derby and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.24
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Derby xG
Total xG
2.76
1.28
Bolton xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Derby and 1.28 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Derby have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 10D 19L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton's form line: 22W 18D 10L from 50 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.46 PPG, Bolton on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.54 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bolton in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bolton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Bolton have gone 22W 18D 10L in their last 50 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bolton away?
Derby's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.54 PPG; Bolton away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Bolton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Bolton?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bolton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 62%, Bolton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derby) and 33% (Bolton).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Derby's games and 58% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derby's recent games and 33% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Bolton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bolton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.