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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Blackburn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Blackburn 3-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.21 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Blackburn attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 39% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Blackburn's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, Blackburn 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights