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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Blackburn 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Blackburn 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.83 xG and Blackburn 0.94 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Blackburn attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 29% | Draw 35% | Blackburn 36%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 48%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Blackburn's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.49 PPG, Blackburn 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights