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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Swansea 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Swansea 1-0 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.23 xG and Swansea 0.85 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coventry fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Swansea landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.43 / defence 0.83 against Swansea attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 68% | Draw 20% | Swansea 12%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 56%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Swansea's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights