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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.44 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Sunderland attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 53% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 20%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.45 PPG, Sunderland 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights