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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Stoke City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Stoke City 2-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.32 xG and Stoke City 0.69 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.23 / defence 0.81 against Stoke City attack 0.72 / defence 0.81, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 50% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 18%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 56%, Stoke City 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Stoke City's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights