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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Stoke City 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Stoke City 3-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.71 xG and Stoke City 0.93 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stoke City outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Stoke City attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 55% | Draw 25% | Stoke City 20%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 59%, Stoke City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.44 PPG, Stoke City 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights