Coventry 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coventry and QPR meet at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Coventry (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Coventry's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, QPR have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Coventry against 1.90 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Coventry 1–1 QPR — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 58% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 58% | QPR 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.31 xG and QPR 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.056 / defence 1.074 | QPR attack 0.869 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.049. Data: built from Coventry's last 77 games and QPR's last 77.
Result probabilities: Coventry 44% | Draw 29% | QPR 27%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.29 | Draw 3.43 | QPR 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coventry 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 44% | Draw 29% | QPR 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Coventry 1.31 / QPR 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.056 / def 1.074 | QPR attack 0.869 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Coventry (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.98
QPR xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs QPR FAQs
What time does Coventry vs QPR kick off?
Coventry vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs QPR?
Coventry 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Coventry vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs QPR part of?
Coventry vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 44% chance of winning, QPR a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coventry and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Coventry vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coventry's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.87x) against Coventry's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 77 games and QPR's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.43
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
QPR xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coventry and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Coventry and 0.98 for QPR, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry come into this having played 77 games, going 28W 21D 28L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.26 PPG from 77 outings (25W 22D 30L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Coventry against 1.26 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coventry's home form reads 16W 11D 11L across their last 38 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 38 away games (12W 11D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.06 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Coventry (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Coventry vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and QPR in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 28W 21D 28L in their last 77 games (1.36 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 22D 30L in their last 77 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or QPR away?
Coventry's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.55 PPG; QPR away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won Coventry 7-1 QPR on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Coventry
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 5, QPR have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coventry and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: QPR 2-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and QPR?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
QPR see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 58%, QPR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Coventry) and 37% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; QPR in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Coventry's recent matches and 42% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Coventry's recent games and 37% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Coventry's recent matches and 55% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat QPR 1-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.31 xG and QPR 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against QPR attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 44% | Draw 29% | QPR 27%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, QPR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.36 PPG, QPR 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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