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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Burnley take on Hull City.

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Full Analysis

Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hull City have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Hull City's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Burnley have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Hull City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Burnley, 0 for Hull City and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 45% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 42% | Hull City 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.78 xG and Hull City 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.657 / defence 0.587 | Hull City attack 1.034 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.053. Burnley's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.587 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Burnley games / 76 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 38% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | Hull City 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 17% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 26% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 20% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.

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