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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Middlesbrough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Middlesbrough 2-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.61 xG and Middlesbrough 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Middlesbrough landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Middlesbrough attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 50% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 26%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.43 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights