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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Derby 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Derby 3-2 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.62 xG and Derby 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Derby attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights