Coventry 3-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Derby at Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Coventry — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Coventry at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coventry at 2.20 PPG versus Derby's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Coventry have won 1, Derby 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Coventry 5–3 Derby — a Coventry win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 56% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 58% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.62 xG and Derby 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.264 / defence 0.833 | Derby attack 1.097 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.193. Coventry carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 1.62 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Coventry's last 85 games and Derby's last 85.
Result probabilities: Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.06 | Draw 3.71 | Derby 4.10. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coventry offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coventry 50% (last 10 home games) | Derby 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Coventry 1.62 / Derby 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.264 / def 0.833 | Derby attack 1.097 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Coventry (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Derby FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Derby kick off?
Coventry vs Derby kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Derby?
Coventry 3 - 2 Derby.
Where is Coventry vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Derby part of?
Coventry vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 49% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Coventry and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Coventry vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coventry's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 85 games and Derby's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.71
1.09
Derby xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
5%
20.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Coventry and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Coventry and 1.09 for Derby, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 43W 18D 24L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 30W 20D 35L from 85 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Coventry are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coventry have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 42 home games (27W 6D 9L).
On the road, Derby have gone 13W 9D 20L from their last 42 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Coventry (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Coventry vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Derby in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 43W 18D 24L in their last 85 games (1.73 PPG), while Derby have gone 30W 20D 35L in their last 85 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Derby away?
Coventry's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 2.07 PPG; Derby away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Coventry or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derby in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coventry have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Coventry's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coventry
2
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 2, Derby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Coventry 3-2 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 70% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 55%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Coventry) and 52% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Coventry's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coventry and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Coventry's matches and 52% of Derby's.
Do Coventry and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Coventry's recent matches and 67% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Derby 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Derby 3-2 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.62 xG and Derby 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Derby attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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