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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Charlton 3-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.13 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.57 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 69% | Draw 19% | Charlton 12%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 57%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.69 PPG, Charlton 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights