🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Coventry at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coventry vs Charlton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Charlton travel to Coventry Building Society Arena to take on Coventry. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Coventry — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Coventry at Coventry Building Society Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Charlton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Coventry have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

In-Play Data

Coventry trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Charlton trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 55% versus Charlton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 57% | Charlton 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 2.13 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.571 / defence 0.869 | Charlton attack 0.724 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.206. Coventry carry an above-average attack strength of 1.571 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Coventry games / 17 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coventry 69% | Draw 19% | Charlton 12%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Charlton 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 60% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights