Coventry 3-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coventry at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coventry vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Charlton travel to Coventry Building Society Arena to take on Coventry. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coventry — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coventry at Coventry Building Society Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charlton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Coventry have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 55% versus Charlton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 57% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 2.13 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.571 / defence 0.869 | Charlton attack 0.724 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.206. Coventry carry an above-average attack strength of 1.571 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Coventry games / 17 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 69% | Draw 19% | Charlton 12%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Charlton 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 60% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 69% | Draw 19% | Charlton 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG Coventry 2.13 / Charlton 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.571 / def 0.869 | Charlton attack 0.724 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Coventry (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Charlton xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Charlton kick off?
Coventry vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Charlton?
Coventry 3 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Coventry vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Charlton part of?
Coventry vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 69% chance of winning, Charlton a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coventry and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coventry and Charlton in?
Coventry (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coventry's attack rating (1.57) and Charlton's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.28
12%
8.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.89
0.76
Charlton xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
8.35
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
12%
8.46
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
1%
70.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Coventry and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Coventry and 0.76 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 32W 14D 19L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 32W 16D 17L from 65 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coventry on 1.69 PPG, Charlton on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coventry have posted 2.03 PPG from 32 outings (20W 5D 7L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charlton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coventry are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Charlton in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while Charlton have gone 32W 16D 17L in their last 65 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Charlton away?
Coventry's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 2.03 PPG; Charlton away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Coventry or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charlton in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coventry and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coventry
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Coventry have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Charlton 1-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Charlton?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 56%, Charlton 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Coventry) and 47% (Charlton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charlton in 38%; Charlton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Coventry's recent matches and 34% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Coventry's matches and 47% of Charlton's.
Do Coventry and Charlton tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charlton in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Charlton 3-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.13 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.57 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 69% | Draw 19% | Charlton 12%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 57%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.69 PPG, Charlton 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.