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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Coventry 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 1.12 / defence 0.55, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.49 PPG, Burnley 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights