Coventry 1-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coventry vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Coventry Building Society Arena to face Coventry in Championship, Regular Season - 40. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Coventry (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coventry have posted 8W 1D 1L at The Coventry Building Society Arena — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
Burnley have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Coventry, 2.40 for Burnley — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Burnley have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Coventry's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Burnley winning.
It is worth noting that Burnley have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 57% versus Burnley 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 61% | Burnley 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.233 / defence 1.015 | Burnley attack 1.116 / defence 0.549. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.013. Burnley's defence strength of 0.549 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 85 Coventry games / 39 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 40% | Burnley 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Coventry 0.90 / Burnley 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.233 / def 1.015 | Burnley attack 1.116 / def 0.549 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Burnley (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Burnley kick off?
Coventry vs Burnley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Burnley?
Coventry 1 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Coventry vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Burnley part of?
Coventry vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 28% chance of winning, Burnley a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coventry and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Coventry 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 3W.
What form are Coventry and Burnley in?
Coventry (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Coventry's attack rating (1.23) and Burnley's defence rating (0.55), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.12x) against Coventry's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 85/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.32
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.04
1.15
Burnley xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Coventry and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Coventry and 1.15 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry's recent record stands at 33W 16D 28L from 77 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 26L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Coventry against 1.36 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Coventry have managed 19W 8D 11L from 38 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 14W 11D 13L across 38 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.22 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Burnley in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 33W 16D 28L in their last 77 games (1.49 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 24D 26L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Burnley away?
Coventry's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.71 PPG; Burnley away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Coventry or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Burnley in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Coventry
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Coventry have won 0, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Coventry 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Burnley see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 58%, Burnley 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Coventry) and 42% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 37%; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Coventry's recent matches and 45% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Coventry's recent games and 42% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Burnley tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Burnley in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 1.12 / defence 0.55, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.49 PPG, Burnley 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.