Coventry 1-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coventry vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Coventry Building Society Arena to face Coventry in Championship (matchday 40). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Coventry (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Coventry have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Burnley have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Coventry, 2.40 for Burnley — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Burnley have the stronger record — 3 wins to Coventry's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2024, ended Coventry 0–2 Burnley — a Burnley win.
Burnley have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 57% versus Burnley 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 61% | Burnley 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.233 / defence 1.015 | Burnley attack 1.116 / defence 0.549. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.013. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.549, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Coventry's projected output down. Data: built from Coventry's last 85 games and Burnley's last 39.
Result probabilities: Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 3.52 | Draw 3.32 | Burnley 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Burnley 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Coventry's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coventry 40% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Coventry 0.90 / Burnley 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.233 / def 1.015 | Burnley attack 1.116 / def 0.549 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Burnley (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Burnley kick off?
Coventry vs Burnley kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Burnley?
Coventry 1 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Coventry vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Burnley part of?
Coventry vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 28% chance of winning, Burnley a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coventry and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Coventry vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Coventry's attack rating (1.23) and Burnley's defence rating (0.55), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.12x) against Coventry's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 85 games and Burnley's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.32
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.04
1.15
Burnley xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Coventry and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Coventry and 1.15 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry's recent record stands at 33W 16D 28L from 77 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 26L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Coventry against 1.36 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Coventry have managed 19W 8D 11L from their last 38 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 14W 11D 13L across their last 38 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.22 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Coventry (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Coventry vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Burnley in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 33W 16D 28L in their last 77 games (1.49 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 24D 26L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Burnley away?
Coventry's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.71 PPG; Burnley away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Coventry or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Burnley in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Burnley have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Coventry
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Burnley?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 0, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Coventry 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 58%, Burnley 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Coventry) and 42% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 37%; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Coventry's recent matches and 45% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Coventry's recent games and 42% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Coventry's recent matches and 71% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 1.12 / defence 0.55, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 28% | Draw 30% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.49 PPG, Burnley 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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