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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Coventry run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Birmingham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Birmingham 3-0 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.95 xG and Birmingham 0.72 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.37 / defence 0.82 against Birmingham attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 66% | Draw 21% | Birmingham 13%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 52%, Birmingham 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Birmingham's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Coventry winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights