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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Charlton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.93 xG and Wrexham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Wrexham attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 26% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 42%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Wrexham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Wrexham's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.55 PPG, Wrexham 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights