🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Charlton and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 13, as Charlton and Swansea drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.06 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Swansea attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 40% | Draw 32% | Swansea 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Swansea 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Swansea's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights