🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Charlton at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Southampton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Southampton in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Charlton (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.

Southampton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Southampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Championship this season, Southampton have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Charlton's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading Data

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Southampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 42% versus Southampton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Southampton 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.56 xG and Southampton 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.962 / defence 0.864 | Southampton attack 0.969 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.171. Southampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Charlton games / 15 Southampton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 25% | Southampton 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Southampton 4.17. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 40% | Southampton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights