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Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton and QPR finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.02 xG and QPR 0.94 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against QPR attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 34% | QPR 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, QPR 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

QPR's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.59 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights