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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Charlton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.00 xG and Preston 1.04 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preston outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Preston attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 31% | Draw 35% | Preston 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Preston 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Preston's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.52 PPG, Preston 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights