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Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Charlton 1-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.20 xG and Portsmouth 0.72 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Portsmouth attack 0.68 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 46% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 21%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Portsmouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Portsmouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Portsmouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Portsmouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights