Charlton 0-1 Norwich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Norwich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norwich make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship (matchday 39). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Charlton (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Norwich have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Norwich's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Norwich arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Norwich edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Charlton 0–1 Norwich — a Norwich win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Norwich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus Norwich 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Norwich 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.78 xG and Norwich 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.699 / defence 0.994 | Norwich attack 1.162 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.177. Charlton's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Charlton's last 38 games and Norwich's last 84.
Result probabilities: Charlton 20% | Draw 31% | Norwich 49%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.98 | Draw 3.27 | Norwich 2.03. Norwich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norwich as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norwich if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Norwich's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 40% (last 10 home games) | Norwich 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Norwich | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 20% | Draw 31% | Norwich 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Charlton 0.78 / Norwich 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.699 / def 0.994 | Norwich attack 1.162 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Norwich (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Norwich xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Norwich FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Norwich kick off?
Charlton vs Norwich kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Norwich?
Charlton 0 - 1 Norwich.
Where is Charlton vs Norwich being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Norwich part of?
Charlton vs Norwich is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Norwich?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 20% chance of winning, Norwich a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Norwich?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Charlton and Norwich will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Charlton vs Norwich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.70) and Norwich's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norwich's attack (1.16x) against Charlton's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 38 games and Norwich's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
20%
4.98
31%
3.27
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.13
1.36
Norwich xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
5%
19.38
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Norwich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Norwich?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Norwich expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Charlton and 1.36 for Norwich, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Norwich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton's recent record stands at 36W 23D 25L from 84 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Norwich, meanwhile, have gone 29W 21D 34L across 84 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Charlton against 1.29 for Norwich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 23W 10D 8L from their last 41 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norwich's away record stands at 11W 12D 18L across their last 41 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Norwich are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich in 62%.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Norwich
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Norwich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Norwich
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Norwich Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Norwich in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 36W 23D 25L in their last 84 games (1.56 PPG), while Norwich have gone 29W 21D 34L in their last 84 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Norwich away?
Charlton's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.93 PPG; Norwich away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Charlton or Norwich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Norwich in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Norwich have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Norwich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Charlton
0
Draws
3
Norwich
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Norwich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Norwich?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 0, Norwich have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Norwich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Charlton 1-3 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Norwich?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Norwich 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 46% (Norwich).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Norwich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Norwich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Norwich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 58% of Norwich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Norwich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Norwich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Norwich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Charlton's recent matches and 73% of Norwich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.78 xG and Norwich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Norwich attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 20% | Draw 31% | Norwich 49%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Norwich 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Norwich's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.56 PPG, Norwich 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Norwich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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