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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Charlton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.10 xG and Middlesbrough 1.52 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Middlesbrough attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 18/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 47%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Middlesbrough 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.68 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights