🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Middlesbrough encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Charlton host Middlesbrough at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charlton at The Valley this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Middlesbrough stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Middlesbrough's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Charlton's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Profile

Charlton in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 43% versus Middlesbrough 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Middlesbrough 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.10 xG and Middlesbrough 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.849 / defence 1.177 | Middlesbrough attack 1.057 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.223. Data: 18 Charlton games / 65 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 47%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Middlesbrough 2.13. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 40% | Middlesbrough 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights