Charlton 0-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Leicester travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Leicester have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Leicester have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Leicester trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 40% versus Leicester 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Leicester 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.32 xG and Leicester 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.847 / defence 0.985 | Leicester attack 0.852 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.165. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Charlton games / 2 Leicester games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Leicester 28%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Leicester 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Leicester 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Leicester 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Charlton 1.32 / Leicester 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.847 / def 0.985 | Leicester attack 0.852 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Charlton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Leicester xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Leicester kick off?
Charlton vs Leicester kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Leicester?
Charlton 0 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Charlton vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Leicester part of?
Charlton vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 44% chance of winning, Leicester a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Leicester in?
Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Leicester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.85) and Leicester's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.56
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.30
0.98
Leicester xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 40 games, going 23W 10D 7L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 0.70 PPG from 40 outings (7W 7D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 15W 4D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 0.50 points per game from 20 outings (2W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 0.90 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Leicester
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Leicester in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 10D 7L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Leicester have gone 7W 7D 26L in their last 40 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Leicester away?
Charlton's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.45 PPG; Leicester away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Charlton or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Leicester in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Leicester?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Leicester have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Leicester 0-2 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 45%, Leicester 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Charlton and 75% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Leicester in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Leicester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Charlton's recent matches and 60% of Leicester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Charlton's matches and 75% of Leicester's.
Do Charlton and Leicester tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Leicester in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.32 xG and Leicester 0.98 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Leicester 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leicester's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.