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Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Hull City 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.89 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights