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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Charlton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.90 xG and Derby 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Derby attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 25% | Draw 30% | Derby 45%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights