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Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 20 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Derby (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Charlton against 1.20 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Charlton 2W, Derby 2W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus Derby 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Derby 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.90 xG and Derby 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.777 / defence 1.007 | Derby attack 1.139 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.127. Charlton's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Charlton games / 73 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 25% | Draw 30% | Derby 45%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.22. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 60% | Derby 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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