Charlton 1-2 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bristol City at 36%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charlton welcome Bristol City to The Valley in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bristol City stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling, Bristol City have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Charlton have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 0 for Bristol City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Charlton 0–0 Bristol City — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bristol City trading profile (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 44% versus Bristol City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 42% | Bristol City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.86 xG and Bristol City 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.658 / defence 0.974 | Bristol City attack 0.854 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.180. Charlton's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Charlton's last 39 games and Bristol City's last 85.
Result probabilities: Charlton 29% | Draw 35% | Bristol City 36%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.40 | Draw 2.87 | Bristol City 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bristol City as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bristol City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 30% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 29% | Draw 35% | Bristol City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Charlton 0.86 / Bristol City 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.658 / def 0.974 | Bristol City attack 0.854 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bristol City xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Bristol City kick off?
Charlton vs Bristol City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Charlton 1 - 2 Bristol City.
Where is Charlton vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bristol City part of?
Charlton vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 29% chance of winning, Bristol City a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Charlton and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Charlton vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 39 games and Bristol City's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
29%
3.40
35%
2.87
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.85
0.98
Bristol City xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Bristol City, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 87 games, going 38W 23D 26L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.37 PPG from 87 outings (31W 26D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.57 PPG, Bristol City on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 24W 10D 9L across their last 43 home games, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 43 away games (11W 15D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.24 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 38W 23D 26L in their last 87 games (1.57 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 31W 26D 30L in their last 87 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bristol City away?
Charlton's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.91 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Charlton or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bristol City in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Bristol City specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol City?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 0, Bristol City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Charlton 1-1 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 46%, Bristol City 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 40% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bristol City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Charlton's recent matches and 49% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 40% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Charlton's recent matches and 67% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.86 xG and Bristol City 0.98 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bristol City outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against Bristol City attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 29% | Draw 35% | Bristol City 36%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 42%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.57 PPG, Bristol City 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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