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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Charlton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.86 xG and Bristol City 0.98 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bristol City outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against Bristol City attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 29% | Draw 35% | Bristol City 36%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 42%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Bristol City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.57 PPG, Bristol City 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights