Cardiff vs Swansea – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Swansea (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cardiff face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 37 as Cardiff welcome Swansea to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Swansea's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cardiff's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Swansea have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Cardiff.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Cardiff winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Swansea have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Swansea trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 57% versus Swansea 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.39 xG and Swansea 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.007 / defence 1.104 | Swansea attack 1.189 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 8 Cardiff games / 54 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 27% | Swansea 42%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Swansea 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Swansea 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 27% | Swansea 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Cardiff 1.39 / Swansea 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.007 / def 1.104 | Swansea attack 1.189 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Swansea (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Swansea kick off?
Cardiff vs Swansea is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Swansea part of?
Cardiff vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 31% chance of winning, Swansea a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cardiff and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
Record (8 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 1 | Swansea 5W.
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Swansea (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 1.01x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.64
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.03
1.65
Swansea xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.65 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 14D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.50 PPG from 54 outings (23W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.81 PPG, Swansea on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 18W 5D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while Swansea have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Swansea away?
Cardiff's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.19 PPG; Swansea away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Swansea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Swansea runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Swansea have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 56%, Swansea 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cardiff) and 56% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Swansea in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Cardiff's recent matches and 52% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cardiff's matches and 56% of Swansea's.
Do Cardiff and Swansea tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Swansea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.