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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.38 xG and QPR 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against QPR attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 46% | Draw 31% | QPR 23%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, QPR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

QPR's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.26 PPG, QPR 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights