🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Cardiff at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs QPR encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Cardiff host QPR at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

QPR — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, QPR have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Cardiff have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 2, QPR 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Cardiff winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cardiff in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

QPR in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 45% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | QPR 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.38 xG and QPR 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.028 / defence 1.095 | QPR attack 0.801 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.038. Data: 62 Cardiff games / 62 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 31% | QPR 23%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | QPR 4.35. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights