Cardiff 0-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host QPR at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
QPR — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Cardiff have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 2, QPR 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Cardiff winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 45% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | QPR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.38 xG and QPR 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.028 / defence 1.095 | QPR attack 0.801 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.038. Data: 62 Cardiff games / 62 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 31% | QPR 23%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | QPR 4.35. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 31% | QPR 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cardiff 1.38 / QPR 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.028 / def 1.095 | QPR attack 0.801 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.91
QPR xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs QPR kick off?
Cardiff vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Cardiff 0 - 2 QPR.
Where is Cardiff vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs QPR part of?
Cardiff vs QPR is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 46% chance of winning, QPR a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cardiff and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
Record (6 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 3W.
What form are Cardiff and QPR in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. QPR (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.27
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.29
0.91
QPR xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cardiff and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.91 for QPR, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 23W 9D 30L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 16W 19D 27L from 62 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.26 PPG, QPR on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (14W 3D 13L).
On the road, QPR have gone 9W 8D 13L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.97 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and QPR in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 9D 30L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 19D 27L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or QPR away?
Cardiff's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.50 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and QPR runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
5
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
From 9 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, QPR have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when QPR 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
QPR see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 40%, QPR 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cardiff) and 37% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 33% of games; QPR in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cardiff's recent matches and 40% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cardiff's recent games and 37% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and QPR tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, QPR in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.38 xG and QPR 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against QPR attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 46% | Draw 31% | QPR 23%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, QPR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.26 PPG, QPR 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.