Cardiff 0-2 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cardiff face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium plays host to Cardiff versus Preston in Championship (matchday 20). Kick-off: Wednesday 11 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Preston's record over their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cardiff against 1.00 for Preston. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Cardiff 0–2 Preston — a Preston win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 45% versus Preston 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Preston 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.52 xG and Preston 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.958 / defence 1.208 | Preston attack 0.879 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.034. Cardiff's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Preston's projected output up. Data: built from Cardiff's last 64 games and Preston's last 65.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 29% | Preston 26%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.20 | Draw 3.48 | Preston 3.88. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cardiff 30% (last 10 home games) | Preston 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 20 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 29% | Preston 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Cardiff 1.52 / Preston 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.958 / def 1.208 | Preston attack 0.879 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Preston xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Preston FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Preston kick off?
Cardiff vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 11 December 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Cardiff 0 - 2 Preston.
Where is Cardiff vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Preston part of?
Cardiff vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 46% chance of winning, Preston a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cardiff and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cardiff vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.96) and Preston's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.88x) against Cardiff's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 64 games and Preston's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.48
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.62
1.10
Preston xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.10 for Preston, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 10D 31L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.27 PPG from 64 outings (21W 18D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cardiff against 1.27 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 14W 3D 14L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.14 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Preston
Blended
Cardiff (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Cardiff vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Preston in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 10D 31L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Preston have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Preston away?
Cardiff's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.45 PPG; Preston away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 8 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
3
Draws
3
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Preston?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 2, Preston have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 April 2025: Preston 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 39%, Preston 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cardiff) and 48% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 36% of games; Preston in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cardiff's recent matches and 42% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cardiff's recent games and 48% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cardiff's recent matches and 68% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.52 xG and Preston 1.10 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Preston outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Preston attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 46% | Draw 29% | Preston 26%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Preston 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.23 PPG, Preston 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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